A new report by Bloomberg with specific analysis on Nigeria's stock market and foreign investments has concluded that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) needs to lose at the presidential polls this Saturday (tomorrow) if the economy is to be stimulated.
The report gives a rather unflattering view of Nigeria's stocks thus:
“Since rising to a five-year high in July, Nigeria’s benchmark stock index has plummeted 30 percent and is now only 11 percent higher than when Jonathan took office in May 2010. Stocks in South Africa and Kenya rallied 90 percent in the period, while those in Zambia and Ghana more than doubled. The naira fell to a record in February, and domestic government bond yields of almost 16 percent are the highest among 31 emerging markets monitored by Bloomberg indexes.”
“We think the market may welcome a win by General Buhari,” Siebrecht, who helps oversee $360 million of emerging-market debt at Acadian, said in an e-mailed response to questions on Tuesday by Bloomberg.
“Buhari is likely to be more effective than Jonathan” at tackling corruption and Boko Haram, and managing the government’s finances amid falling earnings from oil, he said.
“Nigerian stocks trade at 7.9 times forward earnings, the lowest level after Zimbabwe among African bourses tracked by Bloomberg. They will probably rally whoever wins the election, but will be more buoyant if Jonathan is voted out, according to Lanre Buluro, head of research at Lagos-based Primera Africa.”
“If Buhari comes in we believe the rally will be much more sustained,” said Buluro. “It would be a breath of fresh air. The country’s been ruled by the same party for 16 years.”
Is this report enough to cause a voting shift?
The report gives a rather unflattering view of Nigeria's stocks thus:
“Since rising to a five-year high in July, Nigeria’s benchmark stock index has plummeted 30 percent and is now only 11 percent higher than when Jonathan took office in May 2010. Stocks in South Africa and Kenya rallied 90 percent in the period, while those in Zambia and Ghana more than doubled. The naira fell to a record in February, and domestic government bond yields of almost 16 percent are the highest among 31 emerging markets monitored by Bloomberg indexes.”
“We think the market may welcome a win by General Buhari,” Siebrecht, who helps oversee $360 million of emerging-market debt at Acadian, said in an e-mailed response to questions on Tuesday by Bloomberg.
“Buhari is likely to be more effective than Jonathan” at tackling corruption and Boko Haram, and managing the government’s finances amid falling earnings from oil, he said.
“Nigerian stocks trade at 7.9 times forward earnings, the lowest level after Zimbabwe among African bourses tracked by Bloomberg. They will probably rally whoever wins the election, but will be more buoyant if Jonathan is voted out, according to Lanre Buluro, head of research at Lagos-based Primera Africa.”
“If Buhari comes in we believe the rally will be much more sustained,” said Buluro. “It would be a breath of fresh air. The country’s been ruled by the same party for 16 years.”
Is this report enough to cause a voting shift?